VIENNA — Jan. 4, 2026, ministers from eight key OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, confirmed they will maintain current oil production levels through the first quarter of 2026. They opted not to increase output despite recent American military intervention in Venezuela, which disrupted a founding member. This approach reflects similar production freezes in 1998 and 2020, underscoring OPEC+’s commitment to long-term market stability during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced from Vienna that OPEC+ will pause planned monthly production increases for three months, halting increases for January, February, and March. This decision follows persistently weak oil prices, which ended 2025 down about 20 percent, marking one of the largest declines since 2020. Analysts point to a significant market oversupply, with the International Energy Agency estimating a surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day.
This surplus has offset upward price pressures from geopolitical tensions, highlighting the challenges OPEC+ faces in managing production. Analysts attribute OPEC+’s restraint to concerns about an oversupplied global market, which has offset upward pressure from geopolitical events.
While actions such as the recent American intervention in Venezuela create short-term volatility, underlying fundamentals indicate a structural surplus due to continued weak demand.
